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What will the energy transition look like in 2022? Predictions from the Delta-EE research team

We asked our research team what they thought we’ll see in the energy transition in 2022. Here’s what they had to say.

Robert Bloom, Hydrogen Research Manager

“To date, many green hydrogen projects have been planned and announced in Europe across the world, bur relatively few of these have reached final investment decision. I believe 2022 will be the year where we will begin to see policies put in place in many  countries that will allow viable business models to be established and drive projects in the tens or even hundreds of megawatts towards final investment decision. This will allow 2023 and 2024 to be the years where we see many projects come to completion, and therefore a great proliferation of electrolysis capacity and green hydrogen use globally.”

Lindsay Sugden, Head of Heat

“I think it’s going to be a really positive year for the decarbonisation of heat in 2022. We’re going to see heat pumps really cementing their position, particularly in the new build market and making more progress in the retrofit market. We’re probably going to see two or three times the number of heat pumps sold this year as last year.

It’s not just about electrification of heat. We’re also going to see high efficiency gas solutions like hybrid heat pumps growing strongly in some segments, the emergence of exciting new products in, for example, thermally driven heat pumps, which could open some doors to decarbonising the gas segment.

We see more progress in hydrogen ready boilers as well, which should be the first product launching in the next two years or so. We’ll see a shift in the economic proposition for low carbon heating this year.

I expect, with more countries starting to implement measures to realign energy prices and to encourage lower carbon solutions. We’re also going to see orders of magnitude increase in the number of companies offering service-based heat propositions. So, everything from financing, leasing, all the way through to heat as a service. These will all drive decarbonisation of heat, particularly in the really challenging retrofit market, which is of course the biggest market.

And there’s still some challenges and uncertainties in the market. The energy price crisis will still be a big topic, at least in the first part of 2022, which could change customer decisions. The industry is still struggling with component shortages and the high price of raw materials. There’s uncertainty about how that will pan out. There’s a lot of work to do to fill the skills gap as well, so that there’s enough trained installers and so on.

Overall, I think we have great optimism that 2022 will really be a year where ambitious climate targets start to translate into real action to tackle the decarbonisation of heat.”

William van der Byl, EV Research Manager

What are my EV predictions for 2022? Well, firstly, starting with the vehicles themselves, I believe we will continue seeing impressive growth in EV demand with EVs accounting for over 20-25% of new vehicle sales in the leading European countries come the end of 2022. And given issues such as the global chip shortage, we’ll continue to see demand for EVs outstripping the supply of EVs.

From a charging point of view, we’ll see CPOs start to raise their prices for public charging and this is primarily in relation to the increasing wholesale price of electricity.

As an additional response to this, we’ll also see greater segmentation in the pricing of public charging so different prices for ultra-rapid charging, rapid charging, fast charging, etc.”

Local Energy Systems Research Service team

Jeremy Harrison, Principal Analyst

“So, one of the big problems we’re facing at the moment is what we refer to as the energy crisis – the dramatic increases in gas price, which have led indirectly to increasing electricity prices. And I think what it really does now is just show us how important it is for each of us to take part in the energy transition. We can’t just leave it to other people and concepts like energy communities where we’re able to invest in our own generation resources may help overcome that and help us take back control of the energy transition as individuals and communities.”

Lodovica di Deodato, Service Manager

“I think also in the context of this energy crisis, local energy systems become a solution to take back control. And given the high prices and given the fact that we expect this trend to continue for some years, local energy systems will become more affordable and the payback period will shorten.”

Stefano Nebiolo, Analyst
“I agree and I have one last point. As we see climate change and the effect on nature and society it is having, local energy systems could add – and self-consumption add – some resilience against this kind of situation.”

Connected Home Research team

Ricardo Lopez, Service Manager

“2022 will be a great year for the connected climate control market. We forecast that it will grow 20% during this year. This is because before these types of controls were perceived more like a gadget by customers. But nowadays they are more aware of the financial and comfort benefits they can provide. Also, most manufacturers of heating systems are making their own controls and actively pushing for them. As well, some governments are trying to accelerate this market and customer awareness is just better than ever.

2021 shows that most customers are willing to invest in their homes and we believe 2022 will be much similar or even better.”

Zuoxiang Zhang, Analyst

“That’s not all. Thanks to the growth of connectivity, we believe that this year the new services enabled by connectivity will also become more and more interesting. For example, the number of boilers and heat pumps being monitored remotely will increase very fast. And that’s really good news for the service companies because they will save a lot of their time. What’s more, the optimisation of solar PV, self-consumption, the dynamic electricity prices, will become increasingly important for customers in the energy transition, especially if the current electricity price continues to be high this year.”

Do you agree with our predictions? We’d love to hear from you.

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