Electrifying heat in the Netherlands – the role of data and services
Gijs Diependaal, Technology & Innovation Manager - Eneco
Elbert Stoffer, Innovation Manager - Itho Daalderop
Jon Slowe – Director – Delta-EE
Cate Lyon – Electrification of Heat Service Manager – Delta-EE
[00:00:25.130] - Jon Slowe
Welcome to Talking to Energy, a podcast from Delta-EE, the new energy experts. We will be talking about how the energy transition is developing across Europe, with guests who are working at the leading edge of this transition. Hello and welcome to the episode. Today we're going to the Netherlands and the context of why we're going to the Netherlands is electrification of heat.
[00:00:35.300] - Jon Slowe
The Netherlands is a country that I think at the forefront of the move to increasing electrification of heat across Europe. And we'll be looking at how two companies are responding to this. Two interesting dimensions of this will be the move from just selling products or letting a product drop into the market to selling services or having an ongoing relationship with customers. And the second element will be digitalisation and connectivity and how these are enabling services around the electrification of heat to develop in the Netherlands.
[00:01:14.720] - Jon Slowe
And we've got two great guests who join us and share their experiences together, as usual with our Delta-EE expert. So, without further ado, let me introduce my guests. First of all, Gijs Diependaal, who is technology and innovation manager at Eneco. Eneco is one of the three big energy companies in the Netherlands. Hello Gijs.
[00:01:39.640] - Gijs Diependaal
Hello. Thank you for having me. I'm thrilled to be on the show.
[00:01:43.990] - Jon Slowe
Thanks for joining us to help listeners understand where you're coming from.
[00:01:48.370] - Jon Slowe
Can you describe in a nutshell your role at Eneco? What is it you you're you doing and how that relates to electrification of heat?
[00:01:56.290] - Gijs Diependaal
My role is to develop new business models for Eneco. Eneco is an energy supplier. And our core business is, of course, selling energy. But we're looking for new business models for Eneco with a long-term sustainable relation with our customers. Energy is changing. So, we're in the middle of the energy transition and Eneco is building new models for the longer term with our customers.
[00:02:24.660] - Jon Slowe
Great. And we're looking forward to hearing about those models that are focusing on heat shortly.
[00:02:29.900] - Jon Slowe
My second guest is Elbert Stoffer. Now, Elbert also has a job title innovation so innovation manager at a company called Itho Daalderop, which is well known in the Netherlands, I think Elbert but maybe a bit less well-known in some European countries. So welcome to the podcast.
[00:02:49.920] - Elbert Stoffer
Hello, Jon. Hello Cate.
[00:02:53.040] - Jon Slowe
Could you help us understand a bit more about Itho Daalderop, and what your role is there?
[00:03:00.120] - Elbert Stoffer
Yes, please. Itho Daalderop is a company which supplies products made for a household which are taking care of a heat, domestic hot water and ventilation and my personal role in this organisation nowadays is innovation manager.
[00:03:18.310] - Elbert Stoffer
So quite a lot of the products we sell, we develop ourselves. Of course, we have quite some people to do that. Given the fact that we have products in all three of the elements I just mentioned. So heat, ventilation and domestic hot water. We focus within those product ranges quite a lot on the renewable products like heat pumps, for example.
[00:03:48.190] - Jon Slowe
Okay, great. So, we'll come back to Gijs and Elbert shortly to hear more about the two things they're focusing on. To give you a sneak preview. One is heat as a service or more specifically comfortable as a service. And from Elbert, not only selling heat pumps, but guaranteeing the performance of heat pumps. Now my last guest, but by no means least, is my colleague, Cate Lyon from Delta-EE. Hello Cate.
[00:04:19.080] - Cate Lyon
Hi, Jon. Thanks for having me on today.
[00:04:21.190] - Jon Slowe
Thanks for joining. So, Cate, you look at our research on electrification of heat across Europe. And I said in my introduction, the Netherlands is at the forefront of this. Can you just give a bit more depth and colour to that? So how is heat being electrified across Europe? At what rate treatment? Where does the Netherlands sit compared to other countries?
[00:04:43.870] - Cate Lyon
Yes, happy to do that. Thanks, Jon. So, as you say, I manage our Electrification of Heat service.
[00:04:50.980] - Cate Lyon
And across the heat services at Delta, we look at the major heating markets. We see how the transition to new energy is changing those markets, what's coming along in terms of new products, new services, and how is the energy mix in a lot of these markets changing. So, the Netherlands, as you said, it's one of the smaller of the markets that we look at in terms of heating sales and volumes. But it's a really interesting one because it's really kind of leading in terms of this move away from fossil fuels like natural gas and putting more, more emphasis on electrification.
[00:05:20.740] - Jon Slowe
Why is that? What's driving this in the Netherlands?
[00:05:24.010] - Cate Lyon
So, a couple of reasons. A lot of countries across Europe now have targets around reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and moving towards electricity. And renewable electricity is good by achieving that. The Netherlands in particular has been taking a really strong stance on phasing out natural gas after a series of earthquakes in the north of the country that have been caused by natural gas extraction.
[00:05:44.700] - Jon Slowe
And that's quite interesting because the Netherlands is famous really for being a gas country free for decades on the back of its gas reserves. So, it's quite a shift.
[00:05:55.530] - Cate Lyon
Yeah, definitely. It will be a big change, similar to the U.K., the Netherlands, as you say, it's been a country that's been dominated by dominated by gas heating for a very long time. Sort of 85, 90 percent of homes at the moment use natural gas as their main heat source.
[00:06:07.360] - Jon Slowe
So, I said the Dutch are at the forefront.
[00:06:11.190] - Jon Slowe
Are they leading, would you say, when it comes to electrification of heat, are they one of the leaders? How do they compare to the other big markets like Germany or France or UK?
[00:06:19.600] - Cate Lyon
So, they're definitely a leader in terms of new build. So, the Netherlands in 2018 passed a law that means the presumption on any new build house is that it will no longer get a connection to a gas network. In most circumstances, there are some exceptions.
[00:06:34.570] - Cate Lyon
And they've also been ramping up the support that they offer in terms of subsidies and legislation to help retrofit. The other really big sector that needs tackled to help that move towards electrification as well.
[00:06:45.350] - Jon Slowe
And I always think new builds actually relatively easy if we can't decarbonise new builds, then we don't have much hope with a huge challenge that's retrofit. That's a really hard part. That's where the emissions are, progress in retrofit compared to new builds, you've explained that legislation for new builds, is retrofit, moving yet or is it starting to move?
[00:07:08.540] - Cate Lyon
I'd say retrofit starting to move, definitely. And Netherlands has quite good structure in terms of putting obligations on social housing. And there's a lot of social housing in the Netherlands. That's a bigger chunk of the housing stock that than some of the other markets we look at. So legislation to encourage social housing providers to move away from natural gas helped homes disconnect. New build is kind of where most the emphasis still is. And that's similar to we're seeing that developing now in other markets in Europe as well.
[00:07:35.590] - Cate Lyon
So seeing, for example, proposals from the U.K., from the Republic of Ireland, from certain parts of Belgium as well, that they might follow the Netherlands down this route of banning gas connections in new builds. Yeah. So Netherlands is really kind of led the charge on the new build front.
[00:07:52.240] - Jon Slowe
And my last question before we come back to Gijs and Elbert.
[00:07:59.410] - Jon Slowe
Are the Netherlands purely following the electrification route? Or are there other solutions? We've seen hydrogen become a bigger topic in many markets, for example, heat networks. How do you see that in terms of focusing on electrification or a breadth of solutions?
[00:08:16.640] - Cate Lyon
Yeah, that's a really good question, Jon. So, I think when the ban on gas and new build was brought in, there was kind of this assumption that everything would move to being electric and probably high efficiency, so heat pumps.
[00:08:27.170] - Cate Lyon
I'd say that the narratives probably moved on a little bit in the last couple of years. There's definitely an increased interest in whether district heating can meet some of that new build connection need and renewed interest, I think, in biogas, in some of the more rural areas. And as you say, there's kind of growing interest in potential for 100 percent hydrogen networks in specific pockets in the Netherlands system, as to how we're seeing in the UK. And the new build picture is by no means guaranteed to be 100 percent electric, although I think we'd expect a good proportion to be mainly electric.
[00:09:00.010] - Jon Slowe
Yeah. Great. Thanks for that context Cate. Gijs I'd like to come back to you now at Eneco. Can you tell us about this heat as a service or comfort as a service proposition? You've developed if I'm a customer, what does it look like? What can I what can I get from Eneco?
[00:09:21.110] - Gijs Diependaal
The biggest difference compared to the traditional energy bill is that we now sell the product and not the kilowatt hours. So, we make a promise to a tenant for a fee per month. They have a bundle of energy so they can have a comfortable home temperature of 20 degrees or a fixed fee per month and they have a bundle for a hot shower, hot water every day.
[00:09:50.000] - Gijs Diependaal
One hundred and eighty litres. So, the biggest difference is we sell comfort instead of kilowatt hours.
[00:09:57.520] - Jon Slowe
That's quite a change. It's quite a step. Tell me a bit about what drove you to doing this and how that started.
[00:10:09.970] - Jon Slowe
Where did the ideas come from or was it obvious? This is way you had to go. Or has it taken a few years to find your way to this point?
[00:10:19.530] - Gijs Diependaal
In this group of tenants, it's social housing. So, an unpleasant surprise on the energy bill, is a big issue. So, we searched for a model without unpleasant surprises on the energy bill. So, we have a monitoring system so the tenants can see what he's doing and how he's compared to his neighbours.
[00:10:44.420] - Gijs Diependaal
And of course, we have a legal framework to EPF, the energy performance fee. That's a legal framework show the investment can be earned back for the house owner. So, the house owner, the heat pump is of course, a much bigger investment compared to a gas fire boiler.
[00:11:05.600] - Jon Slowe
So Eneco is making that investment in the heat pump, you're monitoring that heat pump. Is Eneco also controlling the operation of that heat pump to deliver the comfort that the tenant needs?
[00:11:21.740] - Jon Slowe
Or is the tenant controlling the heat pumps operation?
[00:11:24.980] - Gijs Diependaal
Both, of course, the tenant needs to be on the steering wheel for his room temperature, but also for his hot water that Eneco has also control because we pay the energy bill, the electricity used for the heat pump is connected to a secondary electricity meter. Connected to touch [illegible] energy. So, we deliver clean energy to the heat pumps and we are steering to have a good performance on the heater.
[00:11:55.490] - Gijs Diependaal
So, the output comfort is for the tenant. But he's also if he wants 21 degrees or 22 degrees. Of course, he can change that, but the bundle is for 20 degrees.
[00:12:08.820] - Jon Slowe
OK. How does a, so to be clear, this is mainly or is it only for tenants in social housing at the moment?
[00:12:20.370] - Gijs Diependaal
At this moment, we have a project for social housing because the legal framework the EPV is only for social housing. At this moment. We have our first pilots, 61 tenants in Utrecht with this solution.
[00:12:37.940] - Gijs Diependaal
Confidential service.
[00:12:40.470] - Jon Slowe
OK, can you see if this is successful? How widely would you roll it out? Would do you think just be social housing? Would it be new build and retrofit? Would it be. private housing as well?
[00:12:54.080] - Gijs Diependaal
Yes. A lot of questions. But we're in the middle of the pilot. And after this winter, we will have more insights into behaviour of the customer, the energy performance of the heat pump and things like that. And we're aiming for the bigger markets for comfort as a service of course.
[00:13:12.920] - Jon Slowe
OK, I guess that learning those sorts of things, you'll learn, the behaviour, of the tenants, the performance of the heat pump that all relates to the risk that an Eneco is taking.
[00:13:24.450] - Jon Slowe
For the customer it's a I think, a beautifully simple proposition, but Eneco there is a lot of complexity for you to manage and potentially a lot of risk. So, has that been hard to deal with or tell me a bit about how how you approach those risks or how you manage those risks?
[00:13:43.890] - Gijs Diependaal
Now, it's worth the risk because a new business model always takes risks.
[00:13:49.350] - Gijs Diependaal
And in this case, we have a very good monitoring system so the tenants can see what he's doing. We can see what a tenant is doing. So, we support, and we coach the tenants to be sustainable behaviour. So we're coaching the tenants. Because he moved from a home with a gas fired boiler and a quick shower all day, if you want it. And in his new house, you can only shower for half an hour if he wants more.
[00:14:19.490] - Gijs Diependaal
That's possible to change, he can ask a secondary load for the hot water that is outside of the bundle. So, we coach the tenants, give them insights, to prevent unpleasant surprises on the energy bill at the end of the year.
[00:14:38.790] - Jon Slowe
OK.
[00:14:39.220] - Gijs Diependaal
So this is the biggest change for energy as a service user behaviour and changing mindsets to be sustainable.
[00:14:50.580] - Jon Slowe
So, in my introduction, I talked about data and connectivity and presumably there's a huge amount of data you're getting and there's a lot for you to work out in terms of analysing that data.
[00:15:04.890] - Jon Slowe
Working out how to coach the tenant, working out how to manage the heat pump operation. So, have you got a big data science team or how have you been approaching the huge amounts of data and then what to do with that data?
[00:15:21.680] - Gijs Diependaal
Yes, we have a very big data science team and we have a lot of experience with Toon. Toon is a smart thermostat from Eneco with more than three hundred and fifty thousand tons installed in the fields with our customers.
[00:15:35.230] - Gijs Diependaal
So, what we learned there to coach our customer and to see the energy insights we use this for the pilot comfort as a service as well, of course.
[00:15:46.600] - Jon Slowe
OK. Gijs, there's lots more I'd like to ask you, but I'd like to move to Elbert now. And what Elbert's doing is at Itho Daalderop. And then we'll come back and have a wider discussion. So, Elbert, you’re a, well Itho Daalderop is a product manufacturer. And if I generalise, heating product manufacturers traditionally have been very good at making a box. And then their business model has been dropping that box into the market through wholesalers, installers, pick up that box and install it with the customer.
[00:16:23.360] - Jon Slowe
And you don't have any ongoing relationship with the customer. So that's not universally true across every heating appliance manufacturer. That's how I'd generalise the industry. Can you tell us a bit about how, what you're doing then with heat pumps and how you are having this ongoing relationship or interaction with a heat pump?
[00:16:45.890] - Elbert Stoffer
Of course. I think you exactly pinpointed the big change. We also as a company went through because from, as you mentioned it, dropping a product into the market. We now have become active sellers of the products, including all of the services which go along. And Itho Daalderop is part of the Climate for Life group. And within that group, we also have other companies which sell these services. And one of them is a […], as we call it.
[00:17:21.090] - Elbert Stoffer
And if you know a bit of Dutch, then that actually means that we guarantee the comfort more or less in the house. So, meaning as Gijs also already mentioned temperature in the house, a certain amount of domestic hot water and also the ventilation is part of that. So, we have moved quite a bit in the food chain more or less and have become quite closely attached to these customers.
[00:17:55.590] - Jon Slowe
OK. Tell us a bit about what the position with ground source heat pumps is in terms of guaranteeing the performance of that, help our listeners understand this specific proposition and what you're doing, and how it works.
[00:18:09.400] - Elbert Stoffer
Yeah, you're already correctly mentioned the ground source heat pumps because that is the type of heat pump, we use most for now for these heat as a service contract.
[00:18:20.310] - Elbert Stoffer
And one of the main reasons being that maybe one of them being that we have quite a good product in that area, but also that the system is very robust. So, the influence of the user is, of course, there but limited. The biggest example of that is that unit is able to make sixty degrees Celsius domestic hot water without electrical elements. So, using a bit more does have an effect, but not as much. So, restricting the risks, which is, as you mentioned, very important in these things, is also done by choosing the right products to do that.
[00:19:03.780] - Jon Slowe
OK. So, its ground source product is easiest in terms of managing those risks if you did this with an air source heat pump, do you think that model still works? It just gets a bit harder for you to manage risks.
[00:19:17.120] - Elbert Stoffer
Yes, it could still work, of course, but the influence of the user might be a bit bigger. And since if you start these models, you want to be able to handle the risks, then starting with the ground source heat pump is a easier. And of course, the heat pump itself is part of the solution. As Cate already mentioned. We started doing this about six or seven years ago now I think in new builds. And there is also quite a lot of control about the insulation of the house and all those kinds of parameters.
[00:19:55.700] - Elbert Stoffer
So, then the solution as a whole is quite robust. And if you then also have influence on solar panels and which ones are used and how good they are and on which side of the house they are, etc, etc, then all in all, the risks are quite low. And in terms of risk, we also have the benefit of being the manufacturer. So, we don't buy these products. In most cases, we make them ourselves.
[00:20:26.060] - Elbert Stoffer
So, they are the chain, the food chain. And the error of margin is pretty oversee-able. And that means that if for some reason a risk would become valid, then we have a short chain which results in the fact that our cost prices to solve it are relatively low.
[00:20:47.070] - Jon Slowe
OK. And how, so, I asked Gijs about data connectivity. How are you, can you tell us a bit about how you're using data to manage that performance risk or to guarantee the performance of the heat pump?
[00:21:01.760] - Elbert Stoffer
Yeah. So, I think it is pretty similar to what Gijs also mentioned. So, we now have for I think 10 years now, quite a few ground source heat pumps in our monitoring system.
[00:21:16.040] - Elbert Stoffer
And as you can imagine, on one end to the behaviour of the people living in a house is quite important. But also, the behaviour of the ground source is very important. And because of the fact that we now have quite a lot of data also over years of these ground sources that enables us to actually maybe increase the risk a bit. But based on the data, it's all within limits by withdrawing more power from those ground sources, putting more houses on one ground source.
[00:21:52.190] - Elbert Stoffer
Those kinds of steps we can make based on the data.
[00:21:58.420] - Jon Slowe
OK and Gijs talked about the experience of the Toon smart thermostat and Eneco can leverage a lot of that experience in terms of data optimization, data science, product manufacturer. I think our experience Cate, is that's not normally a core capability of a product manufacturer.
[00:22:17.880] - Cate Lyon
No, it’s one that most are looking at more and more. But I think that coming into the game a bit behind some of the energy supplies, that have probably been ahead in that respect to thermostat manufacturers but certainly manufactures catching up.
[00:22:31.790] - Cate Lyon
It's just catching up.
[00:22:33.150] - Elbert Stoffer
Yeah.
[00:22:36.180] - Elbert Stoffer
For a company like an Eneco, I think it's logical that they can have quite easily a broad penetration into the market to get data like this logically. For us, that might be a bit less white. Let's say that experience. But in all the houses we have been equipping with our products, we have this data. And what is quite nice and good to see or interesting to see is that we are also able to see the relation between temperature setting in living rooms with, for example, certain types of ventilation.
[00:23:17.420] - Elbert Stoffer
Do you have heat recovery or not? Do you have low temperature heating or not? You will actually see the effects on how a homeowner sets its thermostat. That's very interesting data.
[00:23:31.310] - Jon Slowe
So, Elbert have you built a data science team or have you had that through the wider group that you talked about earlier on?
[00:23:39.110] - Elbert Stoffer
So, within the innovation team, we, about 25 percent of the people working there is working on data collection, databases itself and monitoring systems. And part of those people are also working on analysing the data for future developments on the commercial side of our business. We also have people, who actually use this data, for example, for service purposes.
[00:24:11.650] - Elbert Stoffer
So, and those the FDE’s working on that kind of activities, has been growing quite fast over the last couple of years.
[00:24:22.250] - Jon Slowe
Okay. So, you're building that organically within your team. I'd like to open up the discussion a bit now to look at the differences between new buildings and retrofitting electric heating systems, in old buildings. Cate, you alluded to this challenge earlier on. Can you give us the feeling of the scale for retrofit against new buildings?
[00:24:50.260] - Cate Lyon
Yeah, definitely. This is something we look at quite closely in our heat research because as you say, there's different opportunities and different challenges.
[00:24:57.040] - Cate Lyon
If you look at new builds where, it's quite often quite clear kind of what the insulation levels are. How's the PB been designed? You can understand the thermal dynamics, of the building a lot better.
[00:25:06.880] - Jon Slowe
The heat distribution system.
[00:25:09.380] - Cate Lyon
Yeah, things like that, where it's coming into retrofit, obviously there's potentially more challenges. I think you've talked about those in one of the previous podcasts, Jon, in terms of making sure the insulation levels are good and the distributions all set up, so that you can use high efficiency electric like heat pumps. And in terms of the different sizes.
[00:25:24.040] - Cate Lyon
I mean, if we across the five big heating markets that we tend to focus on at Delta so, Germany, U.K., Italy, France, Netherlands, we've got maybe half a million new build homes being constructed in a year. If you look at the existing housing stock, we've got over 100 million existing homes that don't use electric heating at the moment. So, a really big difference in terms of numbers.
[00:25:46.180] - Jon Slowe
Yeah. Okay. So, in that context, Gijs, Elbert, either of you, both of you.
[00:25:53.380] - Jon Slowe
How do you see new build, sorry, retrofit compared to new build? New build’s the easiest to start in. Can you take these sorts of solutions, these service models into the retrofit market?
[00:26:07.900] - Gijs Diependaal
I think for the future it's possible, but for now we focus on new builds because new builds are well insulated. We have calculations about the heat demands of the house. So, we focus on new builds. That's the low hanging fruit. And then later we will makeshift to.
[00:26:28.910] - Gijs Diependaal
Retrofit houses and existing buildings. But for now, we focus on new builds because it's easier and for a pilot like with a promise like comfort as a service, which is quite a big promise we have. We need a home with well-calculated heat demands and well-designed insulation.
[00:26:53.920] - Jon Slowe
Yes, it's a logical place to start.
[00:26:56.280] - Gijs Diependaal
Yeah. Yeah.
[00:26:57.970] - Jon Slowe
How how about you Elbert, what are your thoughts?
[00:26:59.770] - Elbert Stoffer
Yeah. For us as a company, at this point in time, we are at least trying to move from new build. Not that we don't do that anymore, but also to extend our market to retrofit. But key in that is that the upfront costs need to be as low as possible to make it an attractive offer. So that means that it's really projects based. So social housing and not just somewhere one house, but small areas with, for example, a hundred houses or something like that.
[00:27:36.470] - Elbert Stoffer
Preferably with houses which are all more or less the same. Because the thing is that risk is key in this whole discussion is that you need to keep the risk as much down as possible. And that means that if you have quite a lot of houses which are more or less eagle, then you can spend the effort of making a good inventory upfront once and then make this possible on all these houses. And if you would do that on a one by one basis, that would be for now at least close to impossible.
[00:28:11.930] - Elbert Stoffer
But yes, we are trying to reduce prices upfront and then step in to that the retrofit market.
[00:28:19.190] - Jon Slowe
So, again, I can understand very well the logic of new build and then retrofit on a project basis, as you described.
[00:28:26.740] - Jon Slowe
And you see this model ever working with one by one, retrofits in private housing?
[00:28:36.400] - Elbert Stoffer
At this point in time, that's still very, very difficult. Will it? At some point work, I guess. Yes. But we need more experience, maybe some slightly different products as well. So that's yet to come.
[00:28:59.590]
([crosstalk])
[00:29:00.420] - Cate Lyon
Definitely. Sorry to interrupt you there Gijs. I was just going to say that both of you, with what you've got at the moment, you must be gathering so much useful data in terms of what user demands are, in terms of how the houses respond to the heating systems. You know, a lot of that can hopefully feed into helping to develop something in the future for retrofit once you've gathered the data in kind of the new build to start with.
[00:29:24.210] - Elbert Stoffer
I think that's part of the solution. If you also want to move to retrofit on a one by one basis. So, we now should first get the experience in social housing with quite a lot of houses which are more or less equal. See what happens, take into account the risks and manage that and then make steps based on the data.
[00:29:49.390] - Gijs Diependaal
And also based on new technologies. So, heat pumps are getting better and better, so the temperature is going up every year.
[00:29:57.820] - Gijs Diependaal
Because in the Netherlands, the heating, the radiators are designed for 90 degrees and the heat pumps most of the time working to about 50 or 60 degrees. So that's a big difference.
[00:30:11.000] - Jon Slowe
Yeah. And if you're taking that technology risk, you need to understand that that technology needs to work. You need to have that level of comfort with its operation.
[00:30:19.660] - Elbert Stoffer
Having said that, we don't want to move to too high temperatures, supply temperatures too easily. Cause if you need them, then you should should start to put your money in insulation and those kinds of things first.
[00:30:34.800] - Jon Slowe
OK. Now, as always, time is getting the better of us in these podcasts, though, it's time to bring out the talking new energy crystal ball and today I will set the dial to 2030, so 10 years away. Cate you mentioned at the beginning that the Dutch market is predominately gas at the moment.
[00:30:58.780] - Jon Slowe
We're starting to see more electric. But if you look at all the heating installations going into the Netherlands, electric is still, what, 10 percent, 50 percent, something like that.
[00:31:11.290] - Cate Lyon
A bit below 10 at the moment, actually. We estimate around 8 percent.
[00:31:14.220] - Jon Slowe
So about 8 percent of all heating systems being stored in the Netherlands at the moment are electric. If we look to 2030, the question is what proportion of these heating installations will be electric, either fully electric or partially electric, maybe a hybrid.
[00:31:31.450] - Jon Slowe
So, I'm going to ask each of you to share your view of what that number or range or approximate level will be. OK, OK. I'll start with you. Where would you where do you see it by 2030?
[00:31:46.640] - Cate Lyon
So, by 2030, it's not that far away, actually, when you think about it, only 10 years. But we can do a lot in that time, I think. By 2030, we're going to be looking at around a quarter of all sales that are heating appliances going in are going to be fully or partially electric.
[00:32:02.650] - Cate Lyon
And that's going to be, that's assuming that the majority but not all of new build, are going to be, electric. And I'd say about a fifth of sales into existing homes are going to be electric by 2030.
[00:32:15.200] - Jon Slowe
OK. Very clear. Thank you. How about yourself?
[00:32:19.940] - Gijs Diependaal
Yes, I think energy transition is very, very difficult and every transition. Go slower than expected. I'm in the middle of the transition. I'm the leader in the energy transition and I have a difference ambition, but I also have a realistic view on it.
[00:32:37.580] - Gijs Diependaal
My ambition would be 60 to 70 percent, but I'm afraid in 10 years we're only about 15 to 20 percent. And there will be a difference because we also have hydrogen, gas and there are other options than just electrical heating. So, I would say realistically it would be 20 percent, but my ambition is much higher.
[00:33:03.690] - Jon Slowe
I like the ambition. And how about how about you?
[00:33:09.150] - Elbert Stoffer
About your ambition or my guess?
[00:33:12.360] - Jon Slowe
Either or both.
[00:33:14.220] - Elbert Stoffer
I don't think Gijs and I differ much, if you talk about ambition.
[00:33:20.270] - Elbert Stoffer
I think that the biggest problem with this estimation is that in about 10 years from now, we will be. I hope at least more or less at a point in time that things should be picking up quite quickly. So, I can imagine that from, let's say 2018 sorry, 2028 to 2035. Things will be picking up very rapidly. So, moving one year back a fourth can mean quite a bit of change. But I think I'm.
[00:33:56.570] - Elbert Stoffer
I hope we will reach the numbers, Cate mentioned so 20 percent in the retrofit market. I think that would be very good if we enable that at that point in time. But then if we want to reach the targets, we have for 2050, then we should be running like hell to make that happen.
[00:34:16.130] - Jon Slowe
Well, I think you've got similar views. Yeah. If we are to hit our carbon targets, we're in a hurry. But the only way to get there is through the innovation, that Gijs and Elbert you both described and shared today on the podcast. So fantastic to hear about what you're both doing, wishing you both the best of luck and success as you take it forward. Cate, thanks for sharing your views on the Netherlands and putting it in the European context.
[00:34:50.720] - Jon Slowe
And as always, thank you to everyone listening for joining the podcast. We hope you found our little trip to the Netherlands of interest. And I'm sure we think that there again soon. So, thanks Gijs, thanks Elbert, thanks, Cate. And look forward to welcoming back for the next episode.
[00:35:12.060] - Jon Slowe
Goodbye.
[00:35:13.190] - Elbert Stoffer
Goodbye.
[00:35:14.100] - Gijs Diependaal
Goodbye.
[00:35:16.520] - Jon Slowe
If you're as passionate about the energy transition as we are, then please keep in touch. You can follow us and me on Twitter Linked-In or subscribe to the podcasts on your chosen podcast platform.
[00:35:28.550] - Jon Slowe
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