Last week marked the end of the Year of the Snake, as vibrant Chinese New Year celebrations ushered in the majestic stallion to take his reign till February 2015. The time for “strategy” aptly followed by a year of “action”. Can the same be said for CHP developments in East Asia?
In China, two thirds of its urban central heating schemes and over 163 GW of the nation's electricity generation capacity are already CHP-based, fuelled mainly by coal (the National Development and Reform Commission has stated a goal of 200 GW of CHP by 2020 – estimated to be 22% of China’s installed electricity capacity by then). Regional policy, economic and climatic conditions are strong drivers of the CHP market, alongside gas and electricity prices and availability.
Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are likely to have the greatest gas-fired CHP market opportunity within the next 5 to 10 years. With medium to strong macro-economic performance predicted and colossal spending on projects that reduce carbon emissions, signs point to China meeting its 2020 CHP target - but then again the Trojan Horse has been known in the past to lull us into a false sense of security.
Casting our eye over to China’s neighbours:
Japan and South Korea
Delta-ee has produced a number of research reports for the International Energy Agency (IEA) CHP and DHC Collaborative, including some Country Scorecards (for a full list, click here
). Having worked on both the latest Japan
and South Korea
Scorecards, I noted three key trends:
1. Increasing concerns over security of electricity supply
Following the Great Earthquake and tsunami of 2011, many of Japan’s power plants were damaged, most notably in the Fukushima region. This prompted a nation-wide nuclear phase out and a critical need for new capacity. In that same year, South Korea experienced unanticipated technical glitches at two KEPCO nuclear plants, sparking public concern over the reliability of its electricity supply. Both these incidents have already been, and will likely continue to be, catalysts for CHP growth to 2020.
2. Heavy importers of fossil fuel
With limited indigenous energy resources, Japan and South Korea are major importers of fossil fuels for power generation. Both countries have identified high efficiency CHP as a way to reduce this cost.
3. Energy market reforms underway
Both countries are in the midst of implementing plans for energy market liberalisation. Delta-ee’s research suggests that the impact of such liberalisation on CHP development globally has been very mixed. For example, since market reforms took place in Europe in the late 1990s, CHP deployment has barely advanced.
So, how do these two countries differ with regards to CHP?
In 2012, over 9.5 GW of installed CHP capacity provided about 3.5% of Japan’s electricity production, while South Korea reported 7.7 GW of CHP capacity in 2011 (9% of national electricity capacity). Despite the similar installed capacities, there is a big divergence in the type of CHP prime mover and applications pursued. Japan is the world leader in the development and implementation of micro-CHP technologies at the residential level (primarily internal combustion engines, but fuel cells are increasingly gaining traction) - see the IEA Japan Scorecard
for cost and deployment details. Conversely, district heating and cooling schemes have been the core focus for South Korea, with recent interest in large scale fuel cell projects and domestic fuel cell micro-CHP as an electricity supply hedge.
Looking forward, Japan aims to more than double its existing industrial and commercial CHP capacity to 22 GW and to install 5.3 million micro-CHP units by 2030. South Korea has set a target for 100,000 1 kW fuel cell micro-CHP systems to be installed by 2020.
All three of these Oriental economic giants have shown clear CHP ambition, and our ‘CHP & Distributed Power’ research team will continue to study and track their progress.
In 2008, the IEA gave the following star ratings in the Country Scorecards for each nation’s CHP policy benchmarked against global best practise. We compare them here with their recent 2013 ratings. Japan has gained an extra half star, in large part due to both a strong government “strategy”, but also clear “action” to provide CHP incentives. Having said that, Japan didn’t meet its fuel cell micro-CHP target last year – it’s possible that the ambitious targets may not be achieved.
Overall, my key message to CHP manufacturers looking to exploit these and other markets would be – don’t just listen to what politicians say they will do (“strategy”), but track what they are actually doing (“action”).