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The future of the French and Dutch heating markets: How will they evolve?

In May 2014, more than fifty specialists from Europe’s leading utilities and heating industry companies joined a Delta-ee webinar to discuss the future of the French and Dutch heating markets. To access the webinar recording and slide set follow this link.

During the webinar, we explored two key questions using the Pathways Tool and Roadmap Service (Netherlands & France editions):

1.       How are residential properties heated in the Netherlands and France today?

2.       How will the heating markets in both countries change to 2025?

This was the second in a series of webinars exploring how the residential heating markets across different European countries will evolve to 2025.[1]  

Q1. How are residential properties heated in the Netherlands and France today?

The Netherlands and France are two major European markets for heating appliance sales – but are incredibly different in terms of the mix of annual appliance sales in each market, the mix of fuels used to heat homes and in the scale of their new build housing markets. 

BREAKDOWN OF THE HOUSING STOCK IN THE NETHERLANDS AND FRANCE BY THE FUEL TYPE USED TO HEAT HOMES, AND A COMPARISON OF THEIR NEW BUILD MARKETS

stephen

In the Netherlands, more than 95% of residential dwellings are connected to gas with low cost gas boilers dominating annual boiler sales.  Competing with cheap gas boilers is a huge challenge for lower carbon technologies, meaning lower carbon appliances only account for 3% of annual appliance sales today.  Air source heat pumps, ground source heat pumps, biomass boilers and solar thermal are competing closely for these sales today – each achieving sales of a few thousand units per year.

In France, the story is very different – homes are more likely to be heated by electricity or oil than they are by gas.  This higher share of “off-gas” homes (where heating bills are usually high) presents a good opportunity for lower carbon technologies to deliver fuel bills savings and deliver a more attractive proposition for customer.  As a result, 10% of annual appliance sales today are lower carbon, with air source heat pumps dominating these sales.

Another key difference between both markets which influences uptake of lower carbon technologies is the size of their new build markets.  In France, the new build market is near 300,000 dwellings per year.  Coupled with tough building regulations – requiring a share of the hot water demand to be met by renewables – this is encouraging the adoption of lower carbon technologies.  In the Netherlands, where building regulations are weaker and where the new build market is much smaller, new builds present only a small opportunity for lower carbon technologies.


Q2. How will the two heating markets change to 2025?

EVOLUTION OF LOWER CARBON HEATING APPLIANCE SALES IN THE NETHERLANDS & FRANCE TO 2025

steph2

By 2025, we expect lower carbon technologies to account for one quarter of annual heating appliance sales in the Netherlands, with gas boiler sales falling by around 75,000 units per year. A number of technologies will be competing for a share of these sales, with two key technologies dominating sales.  Lower carbon gas technologies will win out.

In France, we also see significant growth in lower carbon sales.  By 2025, we expect low carbon technologies to account for 30% of annual heating appliance sales – around 240,000 units per year.  A range of technologies will be competing for this – but we expect ASHPs to remain the leading technology, displacing primarily electric heating.  Lower carbon gas technologies such as hybrids, gas heat pumps and micro CHP will also be competing. 

To access the slide set for this webinar please go to our website.

 
How similar is this story in other European markets?

One thing is for certain – each European country has its own unique story as to why it’s heating market looks the way it does. And each country will have a new story to tell as to why each will develop uniquely out to 2025.

Next in this webinar series, we will be looking at the prospects for one or two key technologies across a number of European markets.  To register an interest in this webinar, please email info@delta-ee.com. Places are limited.



[1] In our previous webinar, we compared Germany and the UK – two markets that will develop very differently in the next 10 years.  To access the slides set & recording of this, click here
 

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Wednesday, 05 August 2020

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