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It’s been a busy month for the Electrification of Heat Service. We have recently published our latest heat pump country reports focusing on France, Italy and Germany and have already had the chance to discuss some of the findings at our recent European Heat Summit.
The results of our recent research and the forecasts we’ve made suggest a tentatively positive outlook for the European heat pump market. We have seen growth in some segments of the heat pump market in these three countries, as displayed in the graph below. The arrows show the expected direction of growth over the next few years.
With renewable heat moving ever higher up the political agenda in Europe, heat pumps look to be benefiting already
Across Europe’s five largest heating markets (where almost 5 million heating systems, equivalent to more than 60% of the European total, are sold annually), there is a wave of renewed and extended support measures that look likely to improve the prospects for heat pumps.
Even though Italy can boast that it is gearing up to implement Europe’s strong RES directive regulations sooner than other countries (a step that will improve prospects for low carbon technologies in the new build sector) – our Roadmap Service research indicates that this is merely the silver lining on a very foreboding cloud. Many other important factors fail to support decarbonising the residential heating sector in Italy.
Cracking the retrofit sector remains the key challenge, and we believe that gas based low carbon technologies represent the most promising solution. Market dynamics strongly favour gas, especially in the short to medium term:
1. A recovery in the new build market, which is almost non-existent today
2. Tightening and enforcement of building regulations
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