The market for air/air heat pumps (A/A HP) has long been established – it is a global, high volume market selling well-tested products, primarily for cooling applications (and therefore usually referred to as ‘air conditioning’). But based on our recent research under the Electrification of Heat Service we believe there is significant untapped potential for A/A HP to be used for residential heating in Europe. In some market segments, A/A HP could even threaten the incumbent hydronic systems.  

So why do we think the stars are aligning for A/A HP right now in the heating market, when the technology has been around for decades? Three reasons:​

The European Heat Pump Summit (powered by Chillventa) is always eagerly anticipated by the heat team at Delta-EE. This year was no exception, with a packed agenda discussing the current state of the art in the design of all types of heat pump, and applications spanning from domestic to industrial, from low temperature to high temperature, and using a wide range of refrigerants. Contributions came from further afield than just the EU with India, Japan and China being notable contributors. 

Given the wide range of topics up for discussion, what were the key takeaways? My top three are given below:

With the Chancellor’s recent announcement that fossil fuel heating could be banned in all new homes built after 2025, there will no doubt be significant opportunity for low carbon heating into the future. However, while we wait with anticipation for building regulations to be updated, there is still strong potential for growth in UK heat pump market.

Delta-ee recently reviewed the opportunities and barriers for heat pumps to assess how the market is likely to develop over the next few years. Despite the uncertainties surrounding future support for heat pumps after the Renewable Heat Incentive ends in 2021, and the potential negative impacts of Brexit on the heating market (however that might eventually pan out!), our central forecast foresees the UK heat pump market doubling in size by 2025.

Germany’s hydronic heat pump market has seen a couple of excellent years. Following growth rates of 18% in both 2016 and 2017 the market grew by another 8% in 2018, an increase of 51% over 2015. But is that party coming to an end? Many indicators are pointing in this direction.

Recap: A market both driven and held back by subsidies & regulations

Two factors drove the German heat pump market in the last three years: a change to the building regulations taking effect in 2016 as well as a change in subsidies in 2015. This combination created the perfect storm for heat pumps. But the success may be built on thin ice, as subsidy applications equivalent to 50-80% of all installations were made in 2017.

There is a strong potential future for hydrogen as a means to decarbonise heat, according to the reports published by the UK’s Committee on Climate Change (CCC) on 22^nd November. Hydrogen is painted as one of the three key solutions (alongside electrification and improved energy efficiency) which will help the UK both decarbonise heat and create more energy system flexibility. This supports Delta-ee’s view that the best route to decarbonisation of heating is likely to be a ‘balanced transition’ across a mix of technologies and fuels.

As our Gas Heating Service highlighted recently, the UK is already one the most active countries in Europe regarding the development of hydrogen for heating: see projects including H21, Hy4Heat, HyNet, HyDeploy and H100. This latest report by the CCC only strengthens the argument that hydrogen could play a key role in heat, as well as in other sectors like transport and industrial processes.

The introduction of hybrid heat pumps (hybrids) across Europe has progressed a lot more slowly than we thought it would when we first looked at them around 2012.

Essentially, the technology has not received the anticipated push from equipment manufacturers – remaining a portfolio product for most. And, despite generating very good carbon savings against alternatives, they rarely offer customers enough energy bill savings to justify their higher upfront cost (or encourage installers to push them).