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Trump. What impact on the outlook for global distributed power?

Not many people saw that coming.  And certainly none of the pollsters. 

So what impact will a Trump presidency, and a Republican controlled Congress, mean for distributed energy expansion both in the US and globally?  Here is a first Delta-ee view.

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Key opportunities for biogas-to-energy projects in South East Asia

With biogas engine sales amounting to more than 50 MWe of installed capacity per year in the region, where exactly are these units being sold?

The market for biogas* power generation projects in South East Asia is currently buzzing, especially in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Delta-ee analysis shows that this is down to a combination of improved incentive schemes ranging from feed-in-tariffs and tax relief to subsidy grants as well as abundant availability of palm oil mill effluent, industrial waste, and livestock manure to be used as feedstocks.

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Mexican wave of new gas engine projects

Our research suggests that Mexico will become a ‘Global Top 10’ market for gas engines by 2020

Mexico’s energy reform is likely to herald increased activity in the field of distributed power. Since the Mexican government passed an historic energy bill in December 2013 - paving the way for deregulation of the electricity sector and bringing to an end state-owned CFE’s monopoly of the market - Delta-ee has witnessed growing evidence that Mexico is currently undergoing a period of sustained market growth, particularly in the field of stationary power gas engines.

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Global gas engine market to grow over 50% by 2020

The latest report from the Distributed Power Service shows that the global market for reciprocating gas engines used within stationary power applications is set for strong growth over the next five years. Our Global Gas Engine Statistics Report forecasts that for gas engines sized 400 kWe and above, the market will increase from 4.6 GWe in 2014 to 7.0 GWe by 2020, at a compound annual growth rate of over 7%.


Falling oil and gas prices help, but global economic expansion and ‘green’ drivers underpin our forecast for global gas engine sales. Our research has identified very different drivers and trends in key markets such as Germany, UK, USA, Brazil, Japan and China.

Throughout 2014 we have been researching in great detail the major global and emerging markets for gas engines. We found that nine countries make up more than half of the world’s gas engine market – these countries have been the focus of our research. 

Delta-ee’s Global Gas Engine Statistics Report details the key market drivers which are set to stimulate this growth, and provides detailed segmentation of sales data and forecasts, broken down by 6 global regions, 9 countries, and 6 size bands. For more information on our report, download this free Whitepaper, or contact John Murray at [email protected].
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BRIC stationary gas engine markets – China to lead the pack

Propelled into prominence in the early 2000s, the BRIC acronym refers to Brazil, Russia, India, and China as a single economic concept – of nations at similar phases of their advanced economic development journey. Coined by economist Jim O’Neil, he claimed that GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of these four markets would rise at a faster rate than that of developed economies. To his credit, the share of global GDP (based on purchasing power parity) attributed to BRIC, has risen from 18% to 29% from 2000 to 2013.

But a lot has happened in the past year. While things look promising for India following its unprecedented switch in government, and for China as it diligently abides by its target to keep annual GDP growth above 7% - Russia has been crippled by international sanctions, plummeting oil prices, and weakened currency; Brazil meanwhile, has been swept up in deep structural problems and high-profile corruption scandals.

Economy-wise, 2014 seemed very much an IC year, rather than a BRIC year. Though, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecasts economic recovery for Brazil and Russia leading up to 2020.

Did BRIC reciprocating gas engine markets follow a similar fate? To continue reading please follow this link to COSPP: http://www.cospp.com/articles/2015/02/bric-stationary-gas-engine-markets-china-to-lead-the-pack.html
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Emerging drivers set to promote high-efficiency gas-fired generation in China

With a population of 1.4 billion and an economy which, by some measures, is larger than that of the US, almost all global industries are, to some extent, influenced by China. And while China is not normally the first market which comes to mind when the words ‘efficiency’, ‘decentralised’ and ‘energy’ are used in the same breath, there is no doubt that the sheer scale of the technical potential for distributed power investment makes China one market not to ignore. And so, at Delta-ee, we considered China as one of our nine global countries during ‘Year 1’ of our Distributed Power Service (DPS).

The DPS considers the past, current and future market sizes for gas engines used within stationary power applications. By considering market drivers such as energy price trends, the evolving regulatory environment, macro-economic factors, the competitive landscape and end-user segments, we are able to compile detailed insight on which we base our year-on-year projections out to 2020.



Here are three of the key observations from our China research:
  1. Coal mine (and coal bed) methane has taken a significant share of the Chinese gas engine market to date, but will likely have a falling influence in the period to 2020. This is partly due to the demise of the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) funding stream which previously stimulated investment from overseas, but also due to the emergence of high-efficiency and renewable investments in other sectors. Nevertheless, Coal Mine/Bed Methane projects continue to come online, with both domestic and foreign gas engine manufacturers supplying units - normally in the sub-2 MWe size range.
  2. High-efficiency co- and tri-generation gas-fired projects will become increasingly prevalent. There has already been activity in this sector, with some high-profile projects already appearing. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. With emerging policy support in some regions – and Shanghai leading the way with capital grants and lower gas tariffs for high-efficiency co- and tri-generation developments – together with a continuous and growing need to address air quality issues in densely populated cities, there is strong evidence to suggest that this sector will exhibit growth to 2020.
  3. A shift towards gas-fired power generation will inevitably open up opportunities for large-scale, gas engine-based power plants. While there has been little activity in the ‘power plant’ segment for gas engines in China so far (for ‘power plant’, read multiple 10+ MWe gas engines used primarily for electricity grid export), past performance is unlikely to be a good indicator of the future in this case. The Chinese government has high ambitions to become less reliant on coal-fired power generation, with natural gas set to take an increasing share of the market. While much of this capacity will inevitably be met via large combined cycle gas turbines, towards the end of the decade, we expect multiple gas engine projects will have been announced – especially where flexible, high-efficiency generating capacity is required to meet peak demand. This is indicated via the light-blue bars in the chart above. 

To find out more about the Distributed Power Service, and our China research, please contact John Murray at [email protected].
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