I have written a free Whitepaper, demonstrating how our Pathways tool can be used to find the sweet spots for new technologies, and identify where the threats are highest for existing gas and oil boiler sales. It’s had some interesting responses already.
Some people clearly get it and think what Delta-ee are doing with this tool and research is very valuable – they see the complexity, opportunities and challenges and know that building an integrated and coherent view that you can keep up-to-date is impossible if it’s not your day-job.
Those people with a narrow focus on a particular technology want to protect their vested interest. If their particular favourite doesn’t look great, well there must be a problem with our assumptions and forecasts. I can see we’re going to have lots and lots of detailed discussions, and our conclusions may be challenging for some. But the discussions and debate will be enlightening for all.
Other people just think that the gas boiler is unbeatable and all these other technologies really won’t have much impact beyond niche segments and the new build sector. Maybe there are no sweet spots at all? Yes the gas boiler is a very tough competitor. But with the right policy support other technologies can become very competitive, which could become sustainable without subsidy as product costs fall. Governments don’t want to create another PV boom/bust but this shows once the genie is out of the bottle, it can be impossible to put it back in. And our recent discussions with one of Europe’s leading manufacturers tell us that they don’t expect to be selling many boilers after 2020. So placing all your bets on the boiler is a very brave call.
Regardless of your view on any particular technology, the policy and energy industry drivers are all taking us towards an inflexion point in home energy markets. The only real uncertainty is how quickly will we get there? In which countries? And what technologies will benefit most? These are the questions our research is designed to answer.
We will be holding a webinar on our Pathways and Roadmap Service in due course. If you’re interested, please email me and we will put you on our mailing list. In the meantime, read the Whitepaper to find out more.