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John developed and manages Delta-ee’s Distributed Power Service (DPS), providing global market insight in the fields of gas engines and gas turbines used within stationary power applications. In addition to the DPS, John leads Delta-ee’s CHP research, providing clients with bespoke consultancy and market intelligence. Prior to joining Delta-ee, John spent 4 years with E.ON New Build & Technology during which he worked on developing new-build biomass plants and commercialising innovative community energy solutions including anaerobic digestion, bio-fuels and advanced combustion technologies.

John holds an MChem in Environmental Chemistry from the University of Edinburgh.

Turkey remains a top European prospect for mini gas engine & CHP projects despite recent unrest

Turkey has been in the news for all the wrong reasons in the last week with social unrest and political uncertainty.  It certainly won’t be helping the country’s efforts to become an EU Member State, and it will be having a disastrous short-term impact on the tourism sector and general investor confidence.

But we remain confident that the country is likely to be one of Europe’s best markets for mini gas engine sales out to 2020.  A week before the unrest started, we concluded Phase 1 of our Multi-client Study on the European market for gas engine sales in the 10 – 400 kWe range to 2020.  The main output of this part of the research is to identify Europe’s top 5 country prospects for this size range and which will form the basis of our current deep research in Phase 2.  Turkey is one of those 5 and even with the events of the past week, we think the fundamentals justify this: 
  • Legislation supporting CHP installations under 50 kWe and favourable licensing terms for high-efficiency, on-site CHP plants
  • Considerable untapped biogas potential and a Renewable Energy Law which guarantees a  feed-in tariff for biogas plants for 10 years
  • A modestly growing economy compared to most EU27 countries
And to finish, a quiz.  What do you think the other 4 countries were in our ‘Top 5’, and their respective rankings*?  If you guess correctly, and get the sequence of market attractiveness right (measured by the projected annual installed capacity of mini gas engines in 2020), we’ll send you some interesting facts on the European gas engine market which we uncovered during our research.  Comment below with your answer. 

(*We considered: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey and the UK.)
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Will the Energy Efficiency Directive herald a new wave of CHP in Europe?

The world has rightly looked to Europe for CHP market leadership, but will this last?  On the 18th and 19th of April, the Delta-ee CHP research team attended the annual COGEN Europe conference in Brussels, and the mood there suggests that this leadership should continue, despite the economic slowdown.

COGEN Europe is the European association that exists to promote cogeneration and this year they are celebrating 20 years since inauguration.  Michael Brown, one of Delta-ee’s founding directors, also happens to be the founding Executive Director of COGEN Europe and the anniversary dinner on the Thursday evening  was a fitting way to look back at the achievements of the association and the wider industry since 1993.

Michael said “The European CHP market has grown strongly for decades and COGEN Europe has had a big influence on this. But the current economic environment and energy policy inertia is not helping that growth to continue.  Overall, I’d say the outlook remains positive in many European countries, but is even better in some other parts of the world”.

Since the 1990s, there has been unprecedented change in the energy industry and occasionally it has been unclear the extent to which CHP will contribute to the future energy mix within European markets. But the EU’s new Energy Efficiency Directive could herald a new wave of efficient CHP plants to meet the energy demands of residential, commercial and industry players alike.  The role of COGEN Europe will be critical in promoting this expansion, and helping member states meet targets for carbon reduction and energy efficiency to 2020 and beyond.

Paul Hodson of the European Commission, in his keynote speech, outlined plans for the Energy Efficiency Directive. Each member state is obliged to implement policies to support the EED by June next year. Ultimately, the aim is to achieve a saving of 20% of the European Union’s primary energy consumption, compared to projections, by 2020. A range of technologies are well placed to help meet this target. Advanced building fabrics, energy efficient lighting and more streamlined industrial processes will all contribute. Yet with heat accounting for almost 50% of Europe’s energy demand, some member states are sure to incentivise CHP to deliver the required savings.

We see some of the best possibilities for growth for mini- and small-scale gas engines, with new product launches and policy changes contributing to an increasingly dynamic sector. To uncover the hidden gems of this opportunity, we have recently launched our latest multi-client study: 10 to 400 kWe Gas Engines – The European Market to 2020. All the details can be found here…

Overall, Delta-ee’s CHP and Micro-CHP research teams will be closely monitoring details of EED implementation and the impacts this will have on cogeneration market growth, ensuring that our clients and subscribers have access to the latest news from around the world and regular reports on recent developments and market forecasts.
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Poll results are in! Delta-ee CHP Webinar

Free Delta-ee Webinar - 10-400 kWe Gas Engines - the fastest growing segment of the distributed generation market in Europe?

The results from our poll

We asked our webinar listeners this question: “Which of the following countries will be included in the ‘Top 5’ European markets for 10 to 400 kWe gas engines in 2020?” (We assumed, rightly or wrongly, that Germany would still be a ‘Top 5’ European market in 2020!).

The following selections were made:
  • Czech Republic (20%)
  • France (20%)
  • Italy (45%)
  • Poland (45%)
  • UK (55%)
Thank you to everyone that attended the webinar. The full recording will appear on the website soon.

To view the project scope of our forthcoming Multi-Client Study, please click here.

If you have any questions about the webinar or the Multi-Client Study, please email: john.murray@delta-ee.com

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Why we expect the CHP share of the gas engine market to decline

Recent Delta-ee research indicates that annual global sales of small-scale gas engines (up to 5 MWe) will grow by around 44% to 2016 and by at least 86% to 2020, from 2011. And we expect the annual global market in all gas engine applications to be worth at least $7-9bn pa by 2020.

The most energy efficient application for this technology is CHP, and one might therefore expect it to take a growing share of the overall gas engine market over time. In fact we expect the reverse - its share will decline slowly, although there will be very high regional disparities with Europe having a relatively high share and Africa a relatively low share.

With all CHP’s well documented efficiency and environmental benefits, why is this?

Our research team has been analysing these markets for over 20 years and experience tells us that CHP markets have grown fastest either when incentivised (more common) or when spark spreads are sufficiently attractive (less common). Overall, however, we expect energy policymakers wishing to achieve low carbon goals to be more willing to incentivise renewables and nuclear power, whose advocates are well-organised and effective, than high-efficiency CHP, which has no voice at all in many countries.

There are certainly some exceptions. Germany’s newly revised CHP Law is likely to deliver further strong CHP growth by 2020. The Brazilian market has been growing well now for a few years based in large part on incentives. The Netherlands had a healthy regulatory framework in place which went a long way to helping CHP account for a third of electricity production by 2009. Overall, however, the CHP share of the electricity market in Europe has been more-or-less flat-lining at 11% for years.

This perspective could certainly change, and we will be looking out for it. If it does, it is most likely to be inspired by one or more of the following groups (alongside the small number of established CHP industry organisations) getting heavily involved to make the case for CHP to energy policymakers:
  • The natural gas industry – more gas-fired CHP means more gas sales;
  • Environmental NGOs – more gas used in CHP (as opposed to its use in other gas applications) means higher energy efficiency and lower carbon emissions;
  • Major industries and building owners – more on-site CHP will normally mean lower energy bills.
Either way, based on today’s market drivers, our research suggests that the next decade will see strong growth in many global markets for gas engines, especially in power-only applications with little or no heat recovery.

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