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Jennifer is has nearly 10 years’ experience in the Energy Sector and since joining Delta-ee in 2010 she has been instrumental in developing new research service offerings around heat, including developing our internal customer research and building our capability in technology forecasting, strategic support and scenario development. In 2012 she co-authored a ground-breaking report on pathways for domestic heat to 2050 commissioned by the ENA, and she continues to be involved in high profile consulting assignments for our major clients.

Jennifer holds an MSc (distinction) in Ecological Economics from the University of Edinburgh.

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Customer confidence is high for hybrids

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 Delta-ee is excited to be taking part in a ground-breaking innovation project for Wales & West Utilities and Western Power Distribution. The Flexible Residential Energy Demand Optimisation and Management  (FREEDOM) project has overseen the installation of 75 hybrid air source heat pumps, in combination with hybrid control panels in homes in South Wales. 

The project, managed by PassivSystems, is the largest-scale demonstration trial of hybrid heating systems ever undertaken in the UK. The ultimate aim is to influence the course of UK heat policy. In particular the study will:

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Pathways 2.0: your answer to "what if?"

Pathways diagram FIN

The European Heating & Cooling Strategy and the looming Paris global climate summit are potential triggers for rapid growth in low carbon heating.  But in this evolving policy context, where are the opportunities in residential heating markets, and what are the risks?  Delta-ee is pleased to announce the launch of Pathways 2.0, a tool which is designed to help our clients answer these questions.

Join our launch webinar on the 22nd September 2015 to explore the potential for disruption in the residential heating market using Pathways 2.0. Including:

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Even with a long term reduction in gas and oil prices, the boiler market is under threat to 2025

gas and oil prices

A long term reduction in gas and oil prices has minimal impact on our forecasts for the European heating market to 2025, with a range of emerging technologies continuing to threaten the dominance of the traditional boiler across Europe as the share of oil and gas boilers declines.

This highlights that key players and energy suppliers need to continue to embrace higher efficient and lower carbon heating products, even in the light of the lower fuel prices we are currently experiencing.

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New Delta-ee research shows that the Renewable Heat Incentive has high customer appeal – and reveals what suppliers can do to convert more of this interest into installations

There is no question that in 2014, the newly launched RHI fell short of the high expectations many in the industry had – with uptake of ASHP and Solar Thermal in particular disappointing. However, with a review on tariffs not imminent, the Delta-ee Microgeneration Insight Service considers it even more important to track homeowner awareness and appeal of the RHI – to better understand how industry can make the incentive work for them.The newly launched Delta-ee MIS tracker takes a snapshot view from 300 homeowners every four months throughout the year and focuses on the RHI, technology awareness and understanding customer priorities. The first wave of results reveal:1. Nearly half of our sample find the RHI appealing, although marketing efforts have so far fallen short of raising widespread awareness.The RHI, in its current form, does have potential to woo customers. But while nearly half of our sample find it appealing, awareness is much lower (only ~20% of our sample had already heard of the incentive). A bigger push on marketing will be required to explain the scheme to the wider market – with newspaper adverts / articles and a trusted ‘official’ website the most effective channels from a customer POV.2. Two thirds of people want to reduce their energy bills – but spending on a new central heating system is not a priority. The majority of homeowners say that reducing their energy bills is either a high or very high priority. Not surprisingly the top reason why people find the RHI appealing is because it can save money on energy bills. However, up-front cost remains a barrier for RHI uptake with less than 5% stating that they are planning a new heating system. With summer approaching, 25% (the majority) of respondents said their next big spend would be on a holiday!3. Offering ‘products for free’ can boost the appeal of the RHI, but can industry deliver this? Offering ‘products for free’ is an obvious – and evidently attractive – work-around that avoids high upfront costs that most customers are not willing to bear. One third of our sample would be more inclined to use renewable heating products if it was offered on a ‘product for free’ basis, whereby the product is installed at no cost (and the company supplying / owning the product receives the RHI), whilst the homeowner gets the efficiency benefits and saves money on their bills. A key question remains however as to whether industry can find a way to make such a scheme work for them with more than just biomass boilers. The full findings from this research are available only to MIS subscribers. For more information about this research or becoming a subscriber please contact steven.ashurst@delta-ee.com.

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European Gas boiler sales to fall 22% by 2025 – but don’t panic!

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Delta-ee’s Roadmap Service forecasts how the residential heating market will develop out to 2025 across five of Europe’s major boiler markets – France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK. For each market, we forecast the annual sales of a range of low carbon heating appliances and under our reference scenario, gas boiler sales across Europe will be eroded by a range of low carbon alternatives – with sales falling by 800,000 units per year to 2025. Annual heating appliance sales across five of Europe’s Major heating markets Gas boiler sales will be hardest hit, with sales dropping by ~800,000 units / year by 2025 as low carbon appliances take a bigger share of the heating marketBut what does this mean for key players in the industry – in particular the gas boiler manufacturers and the gas utilities? Our research shows there will be a significant change in the structure of the heating appliance market, but despite a forecast that indicates a slowing of gas boiler sales, we believe the low carbon technology opportunity will present opportunities for all – including those that want to sell gas. Manufacturers: Gas boiler manufacturers need to take  ‘boiler plus’ solutions seriously, and there are good opportunities for new low carbon entrants. A changing market where the traditional boiler is ‘under attack’ certainly presents challenges to key stakeholders in the European heating industry. The oil boiler market will be in steady decline. And while we see strong pressure on gas boiler sales – it’s not all bad - as a new ‘low carbon gas’ opportunity will emerge.  This is up for grabs by both new entrants & existing players – if the latter are willing to diversify their offering. While appliance sales will vary from country to country, there are some common themes across the European market.  One, is a strong role for gas boiler plus* options in the near term (total annual sales will be 320,000 by 2025 across Europe). By adding the right products to your portfolio (e.g. solar thermal or hot water heat pumps) at the right time, and targeting it at the right housing segments, savvy players can protect and possibly even grow their share of the boiler market. Energy Companies: Gas demand will face downward pressure – but there are opportunities for gas and electric utilities around new technologiesOverall, we expect to see a small reduction in gas demand for residential heating by 2025. While annual sales of gas boilers do fall to 2025, most of these are being displaced by gas boiler plus* options or new gas-based technologies.  A small amount will be displaced by electric heat pumps. And much of the new build housing stock we will see by 2025 will be connected to gas – adding new gas demand.  To protect gas sales, gas utilities could consider raising the awareness of more efficient gas appliances (such as gas heat pumps) & ‘transitional’ technologies such as hybrid heat pumps to their customers.  Investing in R&D to facilitate bringing new gas based technologies to market (or even offering the technologies to customers) could also help protect sales. The story for electricity is quite different, where we see some potential for growth in electricity demand for residential heating by 2025. Electric heat pumps will experience strong growth in off-gas and new build dwellings – where regulations are encouraging uptake.  And we expect to see good growth in hybrid heat pumps sales (boiler with an ASHP) which will enable electricity to eat into the gas market.  The result will be significant amounts of new electric appliances being installed, adding new electricity demand in the residential heating sector.  Electric utilities need to consider developing innovative heat pump tariffs to help them attract new customers as well as maintain their current market share. They could also consider playing in the heat pump market, either directly by selling product or indirectly through information dissemination to help grow overall electricity demand (and thus their own sales). To find out more about roadmap service click here. To read more on the above download our whitepaper here. *Boiler plus: Delta-ee defines ‘boiler plus’ solutions as a gas boiler plus one of: solar PV, solar thermal, hot water heat pump
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5 years in the making – now it’s over to the industry to make the Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive work!

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Today (Wednesday 9th April 2014) the low carbon heating industry in the UK breathed a collective sigh of relief as five years of waiting finally ended, and the ground-breaking domestic renewable heat incentive (RHI) scheme is officially launched. Will Customers Go For It? Delta-ee’s recent customer research with rural on and off-gas home owners reveals that the RHI scheme has high appeal for many customers. However, the research also shows there are a number of potential barriers that could reduce uptake. These include: Costs and bureaucracy associated with the link to Green Deal Assessments (which make the customer journey longer and more complex).A continued lack of awareness of low carbon technologies among both customers and installers.Customer fear of moving from old familiar technology to new “unproven” technology.This makes a market boom unlikely: we will see evolution, not revolution. The industry will have to work hard to make it a success – particularly to educate installers and customers, and to reassure customers that heat pumps, biomass and solar thermal are not ‘high risk’ technologies. Selected quotes from our customer research include:Despite these potential barriers however, Delta-ee is positive about market prospects:How Is The Industry Likely To Respond?Many of the major players welcome the introduction of the scheme, which has benefits for customers, installers and the supply chain, while helping the UK meet its long term carbon reduction targets. Some manufacturers have (or will) introduce new products into the UK market to allow customers in many different types of home, both on-gas and off-gas, to benefit from the scheme. Selected reactions from leading industry players include:David Lacey, Commercial Director Heating and Renewables at Daikin UKJohn Kellett, General Manager of Heating Systems at MitsubishiJim Moore, Managing Director Vaillant Group UK & IrelandAndrew Clough, nPowerRead the full press release here.
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