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Low carbon heating market in Europe to see a four-fold growth in annual sales by 2025

In my previous blogs & webinars, I discussed the outlook for low carbon heating appliances in five of Europe’s largest heating markets – Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK – comparing and contrasting the opportunities in these markets.

Summing up the analysis from our Roadmap Service across all five countries, ‘gas boiler only’ sales fall by more than 800,000 units per year in the next decade. That’s equivalent to the entire Italian gas boiler market disappearing, or a 22% fall in market size across these five countries.

In the same time frame, the low carbon heating market across these countries will grow four-fold to just over 1.5 million units per year (almost the same size as the UK heating appliance market!).

Below are two interesting charts I’ve generated from analysis across all five markets:

Low carbon technology sales forecasts per country

RM1

France – narrowly – offers the best prospects for low carbon appliance sales by 2025. It has by some way the biggest new build market in Europe (~300,000 new dwellings per year) and strict building regulations (RT 2012) forcing a shift towards low carbon.

Breaking down the growth in low carbon technology sales, by technology

Annual sales of low carbon appliances will grow by ~1.1 million units per year by 2025 – with more than ten technologies fighting for a slice of the pie.

RM2

Across the five markets, ‘gas boiler plus’ solutions (this is a boiler in combination with solar thermal, solar PV or a hot water heat pump) captures the biggest share of this opportunity – just less than one quarter of the growth in the low carbon market. But there are three other key technologies hot on its heels, each grabbing a 15 – 20% slice of the growth in sales.

So, lots of change on the horizon and varying levels of engagement with low carbon among the appliance manufacturers. Some are being more cautious than others, but it’s too early to call which approach will win. A few examples of what we are seeing today are:

  1. Viessmann already offers air source and ground source heat pumps & is planning on introducing a fuel cell offering in Germany in 2015. It also announced recently plans to open the ‘largest technical centre of its kind’ in 2017 for developing new technologies.
  2. Vaillant has added air source, ground source and hybrid heat pump offerings to its portfolio in recent years.
  3. Daikin launched a hybrid heat pump offering in Europe in 2014.

What’s next?

In an upcoming webinar in December 2014, we’ll explore in more depth the opportunity for low carbon sales in Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK, highlighting which markets are most attractive and which technologies offer the best hopes for growing new sales.

To register an interest in this webinar, please email info@delta-ee.com.

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