[00:00:23.840] - Jon Slowe
Welcome to Talking to Energy, a podcast from Delta-EE, the new energy experts. We will be talking about how the energy transition is developing across Europe, with guests who are working at the leading edge of this transition. Hello and welcome to the episode.
[00:00:24.830] - Jon Slowe
Think about heat pumps, and I'm sure the vast majority of you will be thinking about electrically driven heat pumps, but that's not the only variety of heat pumps. Heat pumps can also be driven by heat itself rather than an electrical compressor. Some listeners might have heard about a gas-driven fridge, an example of a thermally driven heat pump.
[00:00:46.460] - Jon Slowe
Well. Today, many thousands of such heat pumps driven by combustion of natural gas have been installed across Europe. And while boilers are efficient, thermally driven heat pumps are a step higher as they capture the low-grade heat from the air around, and they can operate at efficiencies of up to one hundred and sixty percent or even more. So today, we're going to look at the state of thermally driven heat pumps and explore where this technology might be going and what role it has in the energy transition.
[00:01:19.430] - Jon Slowe
So, to delve into the topic, I've got three fantastic guests. Let's say hello to them. First up, David Dupuis, Project Manager for Innovative Gas Products at Engie. Hello, David.
[00:01:30.560] - David Dupuis
Hello. Hello, Jon.
[00:01:32.780] - Jon Slowe
Um, David Engie is a very large energy company. Tell me very briefly what you do at Engie. Which part of the business do you work in and how are you working with thermally driven heat pumps?
[00:01:44.980] - David Dupuis
Yes, so I work in Engie Lab Crigen, which is one of the research divisions of Engie. OK, I am a project manager and I have in charge of developing maybe several projects dealing with gas heat pumps.
[00:02:05.050] - Jon Slowe
OK, so your day job is looking at gas pumps, at the technology, trials, market development, all of these things, right?
[00:02:12.860] - David Dupuis
Right.
[00:02:13.420] - Jon Slowe
OK, so you live and breathe thermally driven heat pumps. Well, let's come back to you shortly after we've introduced our other guests. My second guest is Stefan van Uffelen, CEO of Cooll Technologies in the Netherlands. Hello, Stefan.
[00:02:29.410] - Stefan van Uffelen
Hi. Good afternoon.
[00:02:32.390] - Jon Slowe
Stefan,
[00:02:32.440] - Jon Slowe
You're developing a thermally driven heat pump. Can you give our listeners an elevator pitch, a very brief summary of what your product is that you're developing?
[00:02:43.120] - Stefan van Uffelen
Yes, we are developing a thermally driven heat pump based on the carbon ammonia cycle, it's an absorption heat pump. And what the thermally driven heat pump does, we take air from the outside together with the heat from burning gas and the sum of those, too, we put in a house and the aim is to do it efficient and our technology, our origin is from cryogenic cooling.
[00:03:11.910] - Stefan van Uffelen
So, for the European Space Agency and the challenge was to cool without moving parts. And when we developed this technology, we thought this will be very suitable for ambient use. And so we started in 2009 with developing a heat pump based on this technology.
[00:03:30.970] - Jon Slowe
OK, so you've been doing this for many years, and I guess your goal is to have a product like a boiler with your technology inside that could go into homes and really increase the efficiency through which that gas is used.
[00:03:45.190] - Stefan van Uffelen
Yes, we really focus on the replacement product for the existing convention boiler. It looks like a convention boiler. So, it has the same connection it can be wall hung, it's inside. We don't need an outside unit. It's very compact.
[00:03:58.330] - Stefan van Uffelen
So, it's really a replacement product of the convention border, but then with a higher efficiency.
[00:04:05.350] - Jon Slowe
OK, thanks, Stefan. So, let's go to my third guest now, my colleague and Delta-EE expert, Steven Ashurst. Hello, Steven. Welcome back to the podcast.
[00:04:16.870] - Steven Ashurst
Hi, Jon. Yeah, it's great to be back for another episode.
[00:04:20.370] - Jon Slowe
So, I mentioned in the introduction there are thousands of thermally driven heat pumps running in Europe today, but can you give us an idea on how big this market is in the context of the wider European heating market, the overall heating market?
[00:04:37.470] - Steven Ashurst
Well, if you look at it this way, products for business customers have been available for well over 10 years. So, distribution, there is quite established across several, several European countries as well as further afield. And there are by this point, there are some small niches emerging. And we're at the point where there is an installed base of several thousand units.
[00:05:02.830] - Jon Slowe
And they might be in hotels or these sorts of buildings, for example.
[00:05:08.250] - Steven Ashurst
Yes, hotels, schools and even a small commercial building where there is either a high heat load, a high-water load, or, of course, a cooling load in the summer as well. That's another aspect that you can provide with TDHPs on the residential side.
[00:05:27.030]
[crosstalk 00:05:27]
[00:05:27.260] - Jon Slowe
So, in that market, in the commercial and industrial market, they're established, but they're a relatively small part of the market. But they're established.
[00:05:34.710] - Steven Ashurst
Yes, established still growing, still developing on the residential side. The products have been available for less than 10 years. So, there's a handful of companies on the market just now. There's one kind of standout market leader. Again, we're seeing several thousands of sales per year, which going into single-family homes or maybe two-family homes. Across Europe.
[00:06:01.370] - Jon Slowe
OK, so again, established for homes. Can you get them in every country in Europe or are they only in certain countries?
[00:06:08.090] - Steven Ashurst
At this point in time, you can get them, and distribution is quite closely matched up with, I guess, as you would expect, the big gas heating markets but there is also a quite advantageous sparks spread so, you're looking at Italy, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland. And then and I would say that's where activity has been concentrated thus far. But we've also seen activity when it comes to residential sales, UK, Netherlands few other markets as well.
[00:06:39.830] - Jon Slowe
OK, so established. But in terms of the overall heating market, a small part or very small part today.
[00:06:48.960] - Jon Slowe
Now, let's look at the how they work because I'm sure some of our listeners will be scratching their heads thinking, how do you put heat in and then get well put one unit of heat in and get maybe one point six units of heat out?
[00:07:05.520] - Jon Slowe
Well, the trick is in using the ambient heat from the air, but which one of you would like to have a go at a really simple explanation of how does a family-driven heat from work?
[00:07:17.700] - David Dupuis
Yes, I can start if you want, Jon and maybe Stefan can continue. I think today for when we talk about heat pump, it's necessary to distinguish different technology. We have several technologies absorption, adsorption and thermal compression. These technologies use a thermodynamic cycle. Energy is transferred from an external fuel to the heating system of the building; therefore, a proportion of the power output is when you [inaudible 00:07:57] very important. These transfers are operated by a refrigerant which carry out the thermodynamics cycle.
[00:08:09.280] - Jon Slowe
OK, so the container refrigerant is like an electrically driven heat pump.
[00:08:15.640]
[crosstalk 00:08:15]
[00:08:15.940] - David Dupuis
The key point is the main difference between these three technology is located as the compression stage for the absorption on adsorption technology. The compression will be characterised by the chemical reaction for the thermal compression. The conclusion will be characterised by the mechanical actions like an engine, for example, but I think it will be better. But my colleague Stefan will continue to explain his product.
[00:08:51.630] - Jon Slowe
OK, so just let me summarise for the listeners. Electrically driven heat pumps have an electric compressor.
[00:08:57.720]
Thermally driven heat pumps have a different thing in place of that compressor. That electric compressor, as you described David, could be mechanical compression, could be a chemical reaction for adsorption or absorption.
[00:09:10.920] - David Dupuis
And thermal compression.
[00:09:13.410] - Jon Slowe
Yeah,
[00:09:14.940] - David Dupuis
Adsorption and thermal compressor for this compression, you consume gas, you need to consume gas for the reaction of this option. OK, it's a chemical reaction breaker.
[00:09:30.320]
So, I'm sure if you're interested in listening, you can Google to get some nice pictures that are available for this cycle. Stefan, tell us a bit about your product. Maybe not necessarily so much from the really detailed technology, but what's in the box?
[00:09:48.680] - Jon Slowe
What sort of things? If someone opened a box, your product, what would they see inside it?
[00:09:56.030] - Stefan van Uffelen
From the outside, it looks like a convention boiler because it has the same connection. But if you open it from the gas burning side, it still looks the same as a condensing boiler. So, it will have a natural gas burner or a green gas burner or a hydrogen burner, whatever gas you put in. And then it really gets different because as David explained, we if you compare it to an electric heat pump, it's much like an electric heat pump from that part on because we need to compress and to pump heat and an electric heat pump, does it with an electric heat pump.
[00:10:33.350] - Stefan van Uffelen
And we do it thermally and with absorption. It's actually a physical process, not even a chemical process. It's just physics. And we have two lungs, you could say, in our system. So, we have two absorption rates, and one is heated up and then the other one is cooling. And then we change the cycle and the other one is heating up. So, we are thermally pumping it from one side to the other side.
[00:10:58.110] - Jon Slowe
OK, and can you do that? You said it looks like a condensing boiler. Can you do that in a box that's the same size as a condensing boiler, or does it have to be a bit bigger because it's more complex?
[00:11:09.720] - Stefan van Uffelen
The challenge is to get it in the same box, and we really see the different models we have get smaller and smaller. And so, it will be about the same as a condensing border, but not as small as the smallest units now available.
[00:11:25.870] - Stefan van Uffelen
But it will be less than 50 kilos and it will be relatively small. So, like 40 by 50 centimetres. And the difference will be on the top because we need air from the outside. So, on the top it's a little bit bigger. If it goes to the wall or to the roof, it has a bigger pipe outside, but that's relatively limited.
[00:11:50.560] - Jon Slowe
OK, so you're capturing heat from the air outside. You're doing that by, in a way, bringing the air into the unit. Other thermally driven heat pumps or gas pumps will have an outdoor unit that looks maybe a bit like an electric heat pumps unit.
[00:12:07.070] - Stefan van Uffelen
Yes.
[00:12:07.410] - Stefan van Uffelen
So, there you see a difference, some units are outside that will be placed on your balcony. Some are inside and outside. So, they have pipes outside. But in our system, the outside is taken inside. So, it's a combination in one product and we take the air from the outside. And that's possible because a thermally driven heat pump generally needs about a third of the air from the outside compared to an electrical power. So, an electric heat pump, because of noise, they need a big outside unit and thermally driven generally.
[00:12:41.510] - Stefan van Uffelen
All of them have smaller outside units. So, that's why it's easier to place it inside.
[00:12:47.060] - Jon Slowe
OK, I understand.
[00:12:49.850] - Jon Slowe
Steven, you mentioned earlier on about a number of products. Well, on the market, thousands of units installed. Stefan's product is under development still. How many products are there? Are there lots of manufacturers are most in the market or most developing product is it a mix of both?
[00:13:11.600] - Steven Ashurst
Maybe a mix of both, I would say there's lots of development activity going on behind the scenes. There are more products which are currently being developed, tested than are available just now.
[00:13:26.560] - Steven Ashurst
But we do see there's a bit of a conveyor or a queue forming of companies that look to launch new products over the coming one, two, three, four, five years, many companies within Europe, both from the established boiler brands, from technology developers like Stefan, also from players further afield, as well as an increasingly interesting topic in North America as well, for example.
[00:13:52.480] - Jon Slowe
So, there's quite a bit of R&D money. Well, there's products on the market and there's a lot of R&D money going into new products.
[00:13:59.580] - Steven Ashurst
Yeah, it's quite an active area, and as we've discussed, there's the three branches of the technology of the three main branches, absorption adsorption and thermal compression companies a range active in each area.
[00:14:11.280] - Jon Slowe
OK, David. Let's go to where you're based in France now. So, is there a what's the market in France look like? Is there a market, small market, growing market, big market?
[00:14:27.660] - David Dupuis
It's not a simple question today, to be honest with you, the French market is poor, maybe only 100 units sold per year.
[00:14:42.890] - David Dupuis
Why? Because we have only one product, which is commercialised in France, but. I am very, very optimistic for the future. Why? Today there are a lot of manufacturers, several manufacturers, who are developing their products, so I think maybe in one or two years, three or five manufacturers will be ready to commercialise in Europe. And I hope in France, I think about BOOSTHEAT, for example, maybe BOOSTHEAT will be ready this year, I hope.
[00:15:26.930] - David Dupuis
Ariston, maybe with their product for the residential market and for the commercial market, maybe Panasonic [inaudible 00:15:38]. And other manufacturers.
[00:15:41.420] - Jon Slowe
Yeah. Yeah.
[00:15:42.620] - David Dupuis
And maybe cool. I hope to of course heat pump maybe and I know maybe on you know a few US Start-Up ThermoLift and [inaudible 00:15:56] these start-ups have a real potential for the European market. So maybe it will be another opportunity. So, I am very optimistic.
[00:16:09.500] - Jon Slowe
More products coming to market.
[00:16:11.620] - Jon Slowe
Yeah, a question for all of you, perhaps in terms of the cost. So, they cost more there's more inside the box and there is in a condensing boiler and presumably, it's a matter of the extra cost above the boiler compared to the amount of money you'll save because of the increased efficiency.
[00:16:33.380] - Jon Slowe
So, maybe Stefan from your product. Do you have a view as to how much that extra cost might be, or is that too early to say or David, maybe from your side? What do you see in France at the moment, or, Steven, how much is that extra cost or we talking double boiler, triple the boiler, payback of 5years, 10 years?
[00:16:57.360] - Stefan van Uffelen
From our perspective, we aim to provide our technology to the different producers, so you won't see our brands in the market.
[00:17:06.690] - Stefan van Uffelen
So, probably you will see the known brands with cool insight on it and the use of technology. So, I'm not allowed to sit on that chair and say something about their market strategy.
[00:17:19.460] - Jon Slowe
Yeah.
[00:17:20.250] - Stefan van Uffelen
So, that will be different per country. But if we just look from a distance to our technology and some of the parts that we have additionally to convention boiler it definitely will be a very competitive product with condensing boiler.
[00:17:35.220] - Stefan van Uffelen
And if I look back in time and see the prices of condensing boilers in the 90s, we will have the same kind of cost price and we will end up a little higher because they have some additional parts. But it's not that we simply if you if you weighed, it is less than 50 kg. So, we don't have that many, many parts.
[00:17:54.050] - Jon Slowe
And there's nothing, no exotic materials or no real precision, very high precision engineering involved Stefan?
[00:18:04.280] - Stefan van Uffelen
Yeah, there is some nanotechnology involved which took a lot of years to develop, so we have been developing for 11 years, but at the end, the product is relatively simple with a small amount of moving parts. So, in that case, is also a reliable as a product. And so, we think, and I think that's the same for some of the competing products.
[00:18:27.560] - Stefan van Uffelen
So, I think the thermally driven heat pump in terms of cost price has a better future than electric heat pump.
[00:18:34.910] - Jon Slowe
Yeah,
[00:18:35.300] - Stefan van Uffelen
And if we really compare it with the convention boiler, that's challenging. That's a very mature product. But if you compare it with electric pumps, we don't need that many parts and they can become smaller.
[00:18:48.770] - Jon Slowe
OK, so it will be a volume manufacturing game today, condensing boilers are very high volume. The industry's been very successful at driving the cost down and thermally driven heat pumps are on that curve of scaling up.
[00:19:05.820] - Jon Slowe
I've got two.
[00:19:06.920] - Stefan van Uffelen
Yes, we expect that the thermally driven heat pump will replace the convention boilers in 10 to 15 years. And of course, electric heat pumps will probably also take a third of the market. I think the thermally driven heat pump in 2030 will also be a third of the market. And that's written in many research projects from Fraunhofer, etc. So, there will be no condensing boilers like the non- condensing boilers are being replaced everywhere at the moment.
[00:19:37.620] - Stefan van Uffelen
This technology will replace condensing boilers in 10 to 15 years.
[00:19:42.480] - Jon Slowe
OK, now we're looking forward, I'd like to look at the gas that is used because some people listening may think, OK, they use natural gas if we're to hit net zero by 2050, there's no room for natural gas.
[00:19:58.500] - Jon Slowe
But we've got a lot of, well, green gases in the system today. Hydrogen is the big hope for the gas sector that we can switch from natural gas to hydrogen at some point, maybe blend to begin with and then hydrogen.
[00:20:12.150] - Jon Slowe
So, can these products, if you're burning gas, presumably you could burn hydrogen. These products all able to work on hydrogen. Are people actually testing them on hydrogen today? Who'd like to respond to that?
[00:20:27.270] - Stefan van Uffelen
Yes, hydrogen is a very logical step in the future. So, we agreed within the re-heat programme already that any thermally driven heat pump by any producer should be or has to be hydrogen ready.
[00:20:43.130] - Jon Slowe
OK,
[00:20:43.520] - Stefan van Uffelen
So, if you buy a thermally driven heat pump you start a journey to a sustainable future.
[00:20:49.450] - Stefan van Uffelen
First step is you say about 30 percent or 40 percent of natural gas. That's the first step. So, you really reduce the amount of gas you use. Second will be the amount, what comes into your house will be more and more green gas. And the third step, it will be more and more hydrogen. So, it will be a blend so up to about 30 percent of the gas can be hydrogen without any problem. And somewhere maybe in 10 years, maybe 50 years, your neighbourhood will probably switch to hydrogen.
[00:21:21.830] - Stefan van Uffelen
And then your thermally driven heat pump will be ready to burn hydrogen as well.
[00:21:28.580] - Jon Slowe
Well,
[00:21:28.880] - Stefan van Uffelen
That's the journey you start with buying a thermally driven heat pump.
[00:21:33.770] - Jon Slowe
We'll avoid getting into, if you don't mind, getting into the hydrogen electric debate today, but it's likely hydrogen will have a role in the future in terms of heating homes. And I think it makes a huge amount of sense to use that hydrogen in the most efficient way. And from what you've all explained, a thermally driven heat pump could be very efficient.
[00:21:55.180] - Jon Slowe
A lot more efficient than a boiler. David, are you testing units on hydrogen today or is that something you will be doing?
[00:22:01.760] - David Dupuis
No.
[00:22:04.690] - David Dupuis
Today, we plan to test a pure hydrogen gas heat pump, maybe in one year, in one year, we plan to test about four, I think four appliances for gas heat pump to hydrogen. OK. Uh, just to complete the explanation of Stefan. Yes. I agree, of course, with Stefan because it's a step by step. OK, so the first the green gases will be it's a key point for the future.
[00:22:37.540] - David Dupuis
OK, one of the objectives of Engie is to develop green gases. So, in this context, the green gas heat pump will play a major role. So, the first step will be to deploy a gas heat pump with biogas, a blend of hydrogen plus natural gas. And of course, and the second step will be the pure hydrogen.
[00:23:01.750] - Jon Slowe
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[00:23:03.700] - David Dupuis
It's I think today green is gases the key point. It will be why.
[00:23:09.400] - David Dupuis
So, heat pump will be the main work.
[00:23:12.700] - Jon Slowe
Well, let's look forward a bit now and in terms of what it would take to develop the market, Steven, maybe you'd like to just start with the things you think need to be put in place or happen to take this market. Well, we've talked about, the products, more products need go to market. David, you mentioned that as a challenge, Stefan, you've explained how your products come to market, but beyond more products coming to market, Steven, what sort of things can help to get from thousands to tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions a year across Europe?
[00:23:47.640] - Steven Ashurst
I think there's basically there's a lot of things that could happen, and it's quite possible that it will happen over the coming years, I guess, to begin with, just an increased focus on renovating existing buildings across Europe. So, over one hundred million existing buildings connected to the gas network, which will also need to begin to decarbonise our faster rate. The renovation wave is a big target of the European Commission over this decade. And as we've heard, even in existing homes where perhaps you don't have enough resources or the financial resources to change the heat distribution system to really heavily and so you can achieve 30 to 40 percent savings from a thermally driven heat pump there.
[00:24:39.120] - Steven Ashurst
The products that are on the market just now, typically are supported with incentives as well. So, as I mentioned earlier, the domestic products that are available in Belgium, Germany, Italy if they don't receive their own subsidy, which occasionally, they do they would also typically receive the same level of support, like an electric heat pump, for example. So, a big push on renovation is certainly an important getting gas grid to carbonisation we've covered that takes you to that extra if you're blending hydrogen.
[00:25:11.710] - Steven Ashurst
In the short term, an extra, let's say, seven percent CO2 savings, if you're putting in 20 percent into the grid. Cooling is another aspect which I think over the next decade could really be in favour of thermally driven heat pumps as well. That's the cooling market and you have especially the cooling and renovation is really just starting to pick up. And in areas where the electricity supply is constrained or it's very expensive to upgrade an electricity connection, for example, to put in air conditioning thermally driven heat pumps would have a strong opportunity there as well.
[00:25:49.630] - Steven Ashurst
So, those are a few of the usual new business models as well. There's no reason these technologies can't fit with the heat as a service model like other heating appliances can to, I see lots of opportunities.
[00:26:04.140] - Jon Slowe
What about building with any new technology? Part of the challenge is building confidence amongst policymakers, amongst the industry, amongst customers. So, I think there's plans for a potential demonstration programme. Steven, can you tell us a bit about that, what that might look like and how important you think that will be to build confidence in the in the centre?
[00:26:26.950] - Steven Ashurst
Yes certainly, so Stefan already touched on it earlier, it's called the ReHeat EU Project or ReHeat EU consortium at this point in time ourselves, along with members of the industry and in collaboration with Element Energy, who's the project coordinator.
[00:26:46.030] - Steven Ashurst
We've amassed a group of over 20 companies in the area and submitted a bid to the European Commission's Green Deal, which ultimately would be for a mass demonstration of TDHP systems across Europe, over 3,000 systems deployed over the next three or four years.
[00:27:05.280] - Jon Slowe
OK, and that presumably gathering data from those systems, the fact that it's an industry effort, that sort of thing, can help to really understand how the technology can be installed, the performance of it, and build confidence for people to take that forward further.
[00:27:22.060] - Steven Ashurst
Exactly.
[00:27:22.690] - Steven Ashurst
You know, over 20 organisations, six suppliers, nine countries for redeployment, focussing on residential systems, but also low carbon gases and hydrogen readiness training over 100 installers.
[00:27:36.100] - Steven Ashurst
Those are all our key goals as part of that bid, of course. Yes. Underlining it all is building awareness and confidence from policy makers to lend more attention to the technology longer term.
[00:27:49.450] - Jon Slowe
Still waiting for the decision on the bid. So, fingers crossed.
[00:27:53.420] - Steven Ashurst
Yeah, I think July or so not too much longer to wait but we've got a really strong consortium there. So, yeah.
[00:28:02.020] - David Dupuis
We cross the finger.
[00:28:03.700] - Jon Slowe
Yeah. Everything crossed. Well best of luck in that it's got to that time in the podcast now when it's time to bring out the Talking New Energy crystal ball and I'm going to use the dual settings of 2025 & 2030 and ask each of you to say where you think gas driven heat pumps will be in those two years.
[00:28:31.030] - Jon Slowe
So, where will the market or the sector be in 2025 and 2030. And you can answer this from different perspectives. David, you might want to answer it from a French market perspective, Stefan, potentially from your own product, Steven, from the wider industry it's up to you how you answer it. But David, do you want to go first so briefly 2025, 2030 where will gas driven or thermally driven heat pumps be?
[00:29:02.410] - David Dupuis
So, for the French market, yes, I think maybe, I hope. My dream will be to have a share maybe 10 percent of the market it will be interesting because I mentioned before, if you want to reduce the price of product, you need the volume. OK, yep. OK, so, yes, I'm very optimistic, for the French market. So, maybe we can imagine maybe in 2030 maybe 10 or 15 percent of the market share.
[00:29:47.270] - David Dupuis
I hope for the French market.
[00:29:50.230] - Jon Slowe
OK, thanks, David. Stefan, how about you?
[00:29:54.590] - Stefan van Uffelen
Yeah, I think in 2025 it is very near and from a technology perspective.
[00:29:59.000] - Stefan van Uffelen
That's tomorrow. And that will mean that that we, together with some large producers, are heavily investing in scaling up. So, it will still be a niche market from a European market perspective, but really emerging, really speeding up. And I think in 2030 and I think we as a consortium agree on this, that electric heat pumps and thermally driven heat pumps are not competitors and we need each other. The energy transition is such a challenge, and the pressure will be so high on the market to do something.
[00:30:32.990] - Stefan van Uffelen
And also, from a technology perspective, we need each other. So, from our technology perspective, it's easy to ask an electric heat pump to our cycle and we make a super hybrid. So, it's either an electric heat pump and a thermally driven heat pump and we could also add a fuel cell. So, it's a load balancing system it can balance the energy system. And we have such a big challenge with winter and summer with storage, with the power grid that we need each other to grow our markets.
[00:31:10.130]
[crosstalk 00:31:10]
[00:31:11.680] - Jon Slowe
Really interesting point, Stefan, about the hybrids, because people think of a hybrid heat pump as an electric pump with a gas boiler, but as you say, electric heat pump with a gas driven heat pump and you have a really efficient hybrid.
[00:31:24.560] - Stefan van Uffelen
You have a super hybrid,
[00:31:26.160] - Jon Slowe
That's a good name, let’s see if that sticks.
[00:31:28.940] - David Dupuis
Yes,
[00:31:31.470] - Jon Slowe
Steven, how about you? What's your view of the future for 2025, 2030?
[00:31:37.270] - Steven Ashurst
Yeah, I guess we've basically covered the 2025, but one additional lever, actually, that I didn't mention to your previous question could be them instances where in the renovation context where you have to meet certain criteria, for example, whether it's a percentage share of renewable energy or your new heating system has to be over 100 percent efficient, which basically means you need renewable heating.
[00:32:05.200] - Steven Ashurst
There's still few and far between instances of those kind of regulations across Europe just now. But I think as we move towards 2025, those could become more common, perhaps more so just at a regional level than nationally. But there's no reason why thermally driven heat pumps couldn't take a share of that market, you know, along with other low carbon heating systems.
[00:32:28.750] - Jon Slowe
So that will grow, that will help the industry grow out of the niches in at the moment and gradually into more parts of the market for 2030.
[00:32:38.480] - Steven Ashurst
So, for 2030, I'll look back to our ReHeats EU consortium again. So, given that our demonstrator would be looking to wrap up around 2005. You know, the ambition from the minimum level of ambition from the consortium would be for TDHPs to gain half a percent of the current gas boiler market in Europe, so half a percent per year, out to 2030 would add up to around about half a million to thermally driven heat pumps install base just from the projects that were involved in ReHeat so as we've mentioned, for other manufacturers that are already on the market, and they'll continue to work their products, and there could well be some other entrants from overseas, too.
[00:33:27.280] - Steven Ashurst
So, I think that's certainly achievable. And that's what I would be looking to see, in 2030.
[00:33:35.800] - Jon Slowe
Well, we'll come back in 2030 and see how we're doing, if not earlier. So, that's been a fascinating discussion on a technology that my guess is many listeners may not have known much about and really appreciate.
[00:33:53.930] - Jon Slowe
David, Stefan and Steven, you sharing your time, your insight on all your activities, what you're doing, and your clear explanations. So, thank you very much. And thank you as always to everyone listening. We hope we've broaden your horizons even further and look forward to welcoming you back to the next episode. Thanks, and goodbye.
[00:34:27.940] - Jon Slowe
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[00:34:44.410] - Jon Slowe
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